Saudi Oil Production in decline?

Over at The Oil Drum (a site i can only heartily recommend for everyone who is interested in energy matters), Stuart Staniford makes the most compelling case that i have so far seen that the oil production of Saudi Arabia may be indeed at or near its peak. His case rest on the fact that all the reported production numbers for Saudi Arabia for last year all show a linear decline of about 8% combined with a steep increase in drilling rigs deployed in the country. This decline was only shortly reversed when a new field (Haradh, 300 kbd) came online. These facts combined indicate rather strongly that the reason for the observed decline could be geological (probable decline at Ghawar, by far their largest field) and not political (mostly to target of a certain price range) like it was in the past when Saudi Arabia did cut production.
If true this does not mean that the Saudi oil production is going to start crashing through the roof, most likely they would be still able to maintain a similar level for several years due to increased investment in both old and new fields. But it would mean that their own optimistic projections of possible production capacities of 12 or even 15 million barrels a day are pure fantasy. With Saudi Arabia as the country with the largest reported oil reserves in the world unable to increase production and Iraq with the second largest descending into anarchy, Peak Oil could be indeed just around the corner.